The 2018 midterm elections are upon us, and the storyline remains remarkably similar to past elections. The minority party, in this case the Democrats, seeks to overturn the Republican majority in Congress, while riding a “blue wave.” If recent history is an indicator, not only do the Democrats have a legitimate chance to regain seats, but any momentum will surely carry over to the 2020 presidential election. For example, the 2006 Congressional midterm elections featured the Democratic Party winning a majority of state governorships, as well as House and Senate seats for the first time since 1994. Keep in mind, 2006’s elections are especially relevant due to similar circumstances in 2018’s. The Republican Party controlled Congress, as well as the presidency (both Bush in ‘06 and Trump in ‘18 possessed historically low approval numbers).
Another cycle that comes into mind is the 2010 midterm elections. This year featured the historic Tea-Party, a Republican political movement advocating for adherence to the Constitution, lower government spending (particularly deficit), and tax reductions. Though fueled by the hatred for the ultra-unpopular Affordable Care Act, Republicans effectively utilized grassroots support to overwhelmingly flip Congress from blue to red. Political analysts see similar levels of campaigning and funding in the present Democratic party, as evidenced by unprecedented victories in deep red Alabama and Pennsylvania’s 18th district. Without further ado, let’s take a look at some elections that may perhaps be the most significant in determining the fate of Congress.
California’s 39th District
A race that Politico ranks as one of the most consequential of 2018, CA-39 has proved more unusual by the month. Encompassing wealthy areas of Los Angeles and the San Bernardino County, CA-39 is a traditionally red district which has been represented by Republican Ed Royce since 1993. Never a contested area, CA-39 took on a new front when Hillary Clinton carried it overwhelmingly in the 2016 general election.
Since then, an influx of Democratic candidates, each with the goal of toppling Royce, joined the race. In the last quarter of 2017 alone, the six main candidates of the Democratic primary raised nearly 4.1 million dollars, a number very unprecedented that early in a race. Already competitive enough, the race took on new heights when incumbent Royce announced on January 8th that he would not seek re-election for this upcoming term.
Prediction:
This seat will flip to the Democrats, in particular Andy Thorburn: a former health insurance executive who is currently favored to win the primary. Victory for the Republicans seems unlikely, as Royce’s popularity does not appear to be replicated by any candidate in the field.
Arizona’s 1st District
If any incumbent is at a threat of losing his or her seat, it’s Tom O’Halleran. The Democratic Congressman, first elected to the House in 2016, faces an intriguing path towards re-election. On paper, AR-1 seems as blue as an area can be, granted its enormous size and significant Native American population- a demographic which skews left.
However, O’Halleran remains vulnerable, as he faced relatively easy competition in 2016. His competitor, Sheriff Paul Babeau, endured fatal media scrutiny stemming from an alleged sex scandal. Perhaps the greatest indicator of O’Halleran’s vulnerability, is the fact that President Trump carried AR-1 in the 2016 presidential election. Republican challenger State Senator Steve Smith possesses a staunch anti-immigration rhetoric that can appeal to voters who have dramatically shifted right in the past few years.
Prediction:
AR-1 will remain Democratic come November 6th. Along with the Arizona Senate seat being vacated by Jeff Flake, Democrats are likely to pick up ground in Arizona thanks to sheer demographics and favorable lines.
Final Forecast
Although the Democratic Party regaining seats in Congress seems inevitable, it remains highly unlikely that the Republicans will forfeit a majority in the House or Senate. Of the 33 seats up for election in 2018, Democrats are defending 24. The chance of gaining a +2 difference needed in order to clinch majority in the Senate seems unattainable for Democrats, as many of the seats they are defending pose vulnerable.
In particular, Claire McCaskill of Montana, Joe Manchin of West Virginia, and Bill Nelson of Florida have legitimate political climates and opponents to fear. As for the House of Representatives, despite the so-called “blue wave,” overcoming the Republican total of 238 seats is unrealistic to say the least.
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