On April 8th, Bernard Sanders dropped out of the Democratic primary. His exit cleared the way for Joseph R. Biden, who he endorsed 5 days later, to become the Democratic nominee. Bernie was the most formidable opponent to Biden during the primaries—while Biden had about 1,300 delegates, he had about 900. In comparison, Elizabeth Warren—the candidate with the third-most number of delegates—had only 81.
In Bernie’s words, “The path toward victory [was] virtually impossible.” However, that is not to say his campaign was not hard-fought. At the beginning of his campaign, he won Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire consecutively, becoming the first-ever candidate to score the first three states of the primary. After Biden unexpectedly won the South Carolina primary, though, his campaign gained incredible momentum. Winning almost every state on Super Tuesday, Biden’s campaign made an enormous comeback, and his victories in subsequent states solidified his lead.
Behind Biden’s Victory
With the sudden revival of Biden’s moribund campaign came the sudden death of Bernie’s thriving campaign. The key to Biden’s success was most likely the key endorsements from other candidates, like Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar, who dropped out soon after Biden’s impressive showing in South Carolina. Bernie received almost no endorsements from 2020 drop-outs, with the exception of two: Bill de Blasio, incumbent mayor of New York, and Marianne Williamson, activist and author.
Another key endorsement (or lack thereof) might have decided the fate of the primaries. Elizabeth Warren, a Senator for Massachusetts and progressive candidate whose viewpoints were similar to Bernie’s, dropped out after making a poor showing on Super Tuesday. However, she chose to not endorse any candidate, sparking tumultuous controversy. She had every right not to side with Biden or Bernie, some argued, and her endorsement would have made no difference; others argued that her choice betrayed the progressive movement, and allowed Biden to secure the nomination.
Another tool might have also aided Biden behind the scenes: voter suppression. Young voters waited in line for up to 8 hours, after which period many of them gave up and left. Also, many young Americans did not register to vote because they found it excruciatingly difficult. Voter registration is much more difficult among young people, especially first-time voters, which often discourages them from registering. According to the Atlantic, same-day registration—which allows voters to register when they come to vote on Election Day—“expands the voting rates of young people by as much as 10 percentage points.”
As It Stands
Now that Bernie is out of the race, how do Biden and Trump stack up? Currently, almost all nationwide polls agree that Joe Biden is leading against Donald Trump. Even in swing states Biden is decently ahead – he is leading in Florida, with 47% favorability against Trump’s 43% (with 10% undecided). In spite of this, it is too early to gauge the results of the presidential election. Predicting the outcome based off of this information is like predicting the weather for November 3rd. But what advantages will each candidate have working for them?
Winning (And Losing) Factors
The public opinion of President Trump, especially on how well he has handled the epidemic, will be a crucial factor in the election. He may have an advantage due to the “rally ‘round the flag effect,” a phenomenon that causes a leader’s approval ratings to spike during a national crisis. Although, CNN noted that his approval rating peaked at 49% during March, but then plummeted down to 43% in April.
Media coverage is also playing a major role as we speak. While Trump is doing press conferences and making headlines in the media, Biden is doing web conferences from home and barely making appearances. CNN estimates that Trump has a 9:1 media presence against Biden. However, Trump’s excessive spotlight during the coronavirus crisis may aid Biden’s campaign, but that will depend on Trump’s approval ratings.
One issue Biden may face is with younger voters. They voted overwhelmingly for Bernie Sanders in the primaries, throwing their support behind Bernie’s progressive and radical campaign. With Bernie out of the picture, young voters are skeptical of Biden’s moderate, pro-establishment views. Another massive disadvantage behind Biden’s campaign is his lack of concrete policy compared to Trump or Bernie; in the words of Wired, “Joe Biden’s candidacy was strong. His campaign wasn’t.”
As with 2016, the electoral college will play a major role in deciding who reaches 270 Electors. Trump’s primarily rural base, his “red wall” in the Midwest, will boost him on the Electoral scale. Biden will then need to perform well in the swing states, like Florida and Michigan, which he won in the primaries.
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