Iowa
The Iowa caucus on February 3, 2020 marked the official start date of the 2020 Democratic Primary, but what should have been a smooth-sailing process turned out to be a chaotic mess. This was mostly due to an app that the Iowa Democratic Party had not tested, as well as a newer, more complicated system to execute the caucus procedure.
After the 2016 Democratic Primary, Senator Bernie Sanders had called for reforms to the caucuses process; these reforms meant that each precinct, which Iowa has 1,765 of, had to record three numbers of data. The first number is the first alignment votes, the second is the final alignment votes, and the third is the total state delegate equivalents. Sanders proposed this reform to make the process more democratic, but in truth, he made the entire system unnecessarily complicated.
In comparison to the Republican caucuses, the Democratic caucuses are seen as undemocratic. The Republican Party of Iowa has conducted caucuses as a straw poll, in which members of the community gather in one location and vote anonymously. The Democratic Party performs caucuses in an open vote, and these votes are then translated into SDEs (state delegate equivalents).
After weeks of counting and recounting, it has been decided that Mayor Pete Buttigieg won the Iowa caucuses, even though Bernie Sanders won the final alignment votes. After 25 days, it is still unclear whether Buttigieg has won 13 or 14 delegates or if Sanders has won 12 or 13 delegates.
The Iowa caucus disaster has also called into question the reason for having a caucus in 2020 as well as whether or not Iowa deserves to be the first primary contest in the Presidential Primaries. Republicans and Democrats throughout Iowa have been defending the system to keep with tradition since the caucuses have existed in Iowa since the 1800s. In contrast, others on both sides of the aisle have seen the process as outdated. Democrats also believe that Iowa should not be the first political contest in the nation due to Iowa’s lack of diversity, but Iowa has had the status as the start of the primaries since 1972. After the caucuses and the harsh criticism, President Donald Trump took to Twitter to reinforce that “Iowa will stay where it is.”
New Hampshire
After the disastrous Iowa caucus, Democrats looked to New Hampshire as a more reliable primary contest. New Hampshire is considered a swing state in the general election, with a very close margin between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in 2016. New Hampshire has made and broken campaigns in the past, but the state only has 24 delegates to offer, and a candidate needs almost 2,000 delegates to clinch the nomination, so there’s plenty of campaigning yet to be done. This state was looking good for Senator Bernie Sanders, who comes from neighboring Vermont and also does well with voters who identify as liberal, a percentage that has been growing in New Hampshire. Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who led in delegates after Iowa, was looking to gain votes from the state’s high number of college-educated voters.
In the end, Senator Sanders edged out Mayor Buttigieg to win the state, though only by less than 5,000 votes. Senator Amy Klobuchar surged to a surprising third place, gaining 6 delegates, while the leading two men got 9 delegates each. Former VP Biden was left to deal with a 5th place finish, a huge shock for a man who was once seen as the frontrunner in this primary. He left New Hampshire early to campaign in South Carolina, a state with a high amount of black voters, which make up his core base. Andrew Yang did not finish in the top 5, and ended his historic campaign the next day. It is important to note that unlike Nevada, which canceled its Republican caucus to show support for President Trump’s re-election, New Hampshire held its Republican primary. Unsurprisingly, President Trump won.
Nevada
On February 22, 2020, the state of Nevada held their caucuses to decide which candidates would be awarded the 36 pledged delegates. No one in the media could have predicted that Bernie Sanders would win the contest by more than 16 points, which is why the mainstream news networks have tried to undercut Bernie Sanders’s win by cutting out the Nevada Caucus results entirely. The results were only briefly mentioned since a large sect of the Democratic Party is worried about a Bernie Sanders nomination.
The remarkable piece of evidence that has come out of the Nevada Caucus is the fact that none of the candidates have dropped out. Tulsi Gabbard remains in the race even though 1.76% of the vote thus far has gone to her. Another surprise candidate that remains in the race is Tom Steyer. After spending $13.55 million in the Nevada Caucuses and only garnering a 5th place win with 4.7% of the county convention delegates, Tom Steyer refuses to drop out. Reports have shown that Tom Steyer has spent close to $19 million in the state of South Carolina, but is polling at a distant 3rd place as of now. With the polls showing a close race between Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, it would not be a shock to see Joe Biden pulling out a victory with Bernie Sanders one to five points behind.
South Carolina
South Carolina, like Nevada, canceled its Republican primary to show support for President Trump’s re-election. I predict that either Sanders or Biden will win the state’s Democratic primary. Biden is polling higher as of now, no doubt because of his popularity among black voters, who make up a large percentage of South Carolina’s electorate. Bernie will still have a strong showing, despite probably coming in second. South Carolina broke Bernie in 2016, but I doubt that will be the case this year. I also anticipate Tulsi Gabbard dropping out after this primary, and definitely leaving the race by Super Tuesday.
After South Carolina, both Steyer and Gabbard should both drop out of the race, and one more prominent Democrat should join them as well. If this does not happen, then the delegates will continue to be proportionately split between top tier candidates. A week after South Carolina is the long-awaited Super Tuesday election. In one day, more than a third of the delegates will be up for grabs. If no candidate can win a plurality of these delegates, it could become more likely that the Democratic Party will be headed to a heated brokered convention this summer.
Media Coverage of the Candidates and Results
The 2020 primaries could not be more different from the primaries that led to the 2016 general election. In 2016, the Republican Party had numerous candidates that believed they could secure the nomination, from Marco Rubio to Jeb Bush to Trump himself. On the contrary, many Democrats knew that Hillary Clinton would be their nominee. This year, we have a strong re-election campaign by President Trump on the Republican side and a wide open Democratic field, although front-runners are emerging.
Each Democratic candidate has issues that the media has pointed out. In my opinion, some of these issues receive an unfair amount of coverage. A long standing criticism of Mayor Buttigieg is his lack of support among African American voters, a core demographic for Democrats. This is due in part to his (mis)handling of a fatal shooting of a black man by a police officer in South Bend while he was mayor. Yet, when Buttigieg took steps to hire staffers to coordinate his outreach to the black community, he was also criticized, which I personally found unfair. Buttigieg was also pushed to disclose what he did while he was employed by the McKinsey consulting firm, and he proceeded to release a list of his clients.
Senator Sanders, the presumptive front-runner of the race, has faced constant coverage of his age and health issues, a problem also faced by Clinton in 2016. He suffered a heart attack in 2019, and he will turn 79 this year, so some of these criticisms are valid. In recent days, he has been skewered over his statements concerning Cuban dictator Fidel Castro, after he stated that Castro’s regime helped educate the Cuban people. He has also been called out for taking over a month to disclose that Russia is attempting to assist his 2020 campaign. The briefing he received about Russia is believed to have been classified, so that may explain the delay in disclosure.
Other candidates have been scrutinized for past issues and policies. Mayor Bloomberg has been rightfully criticized over the stop-and-frisk policy he promoted as Mayor of New York City, as well as his views on education and egregious spending on ads. He has yet to compete in a primary. Sen. Amy Klobuchar’s record as a prosecutor, as well as an alleged incident in which she assaulted a staffer, have been publicized as well. Sen. Elizabeth Warren received widespread coverage after she claimed Sanders told her in a private meeting that he believed a woman could not win the election, a claim many of his supporters refused to believe. She has also been attacked by liberal outlets for her past affiliation with the Republican Party and by various outlets for her beliefs about her Native American heritage. The 2020 landscape is radically different from previous years, and it will be difficult for any of these candidates to attract more press than our current president, who one of them will eventually have to face.
Donald Trump and the Republican Primaries
While February 3, 2020, marked the start of the Democratic Primaries, it was also the beginning of the less entertaining Republican Primary. This is because President Donald Trump is sure to win the nomination even though Bill Weld is challenging him. As of now, Donald Trump has gained 91.2% of the vote after the IA, and NH primaries and seven states have canceled the Republican Primaries to support Donald Trump. When these states canceled their primaries, the mainstream media went wild, claiming that the Republican Party was trying to protect Trump due to the fears that he could not get reelected. Canceling primaries for an incumbent is, however, a routine procedure, and both parties have done it in the past in numerous states. The media has hidden those facts from their viewers to try and paint Donald Trump and the Republican Party as a danger to democracy.
Even though Donald Trump is a shoo-in to win the Republican Primary, he is still campaigning and holding rallies as if there was a contested primary. The reason for this is because Donald Trump’s rallies garner national coverage, and holding these rallies takes away air time from 2020 Democratic candidates and keeps Donald Trump relevant throughout the primary process.
0
0
Average Rating