Introduction
On December 22, 2032, an asteroid is on course to pass near Earth, and while the chances of impact are low, the possibility has sparked concern. First detected by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Chile on December 7, 2024, asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 2.3% chance of colliding with Earth, according to NASA. The asteroid is estimated to be 130-300 feet—roughly the size of a football field or as tall as the Statue of Liberty. While the chances of this asteroid colliding with Earth are minuscule, scientists are concerned as it is still a near-Earth object (NEO) traveling approximately 17 kilometers per second or about 38,000 miles per hour. However, as scientists continue to refine its trajectory, many question what would happen if this asteroid were to strike Earth.
Tracking and Trajectory Analysis
According to NASA, as of right now, 2024 YR4 is rated a 3 on the Torino Scale, which is a “tool for categorizing potential Earth impact events.” A zero on the Torino scale means there is a zero chance of a collision with Earth, and is classified as the white zone. On the other hand, eight through ten on the scale are classified as the red zone, indicating that the object is capable of causing localized or global catastrophe, possibly ending humanity. However, 2024 YR4 is classified as a three, or a yellow zone. This means that the asteroid has a 1% or greater chance of collision with Earth, and will most likely be reassigned to Level 0 as scientists continue to observe the asteroid’s trajectory.
It is important to note that getting a rating of three on the Torino Scale is quite rare however, and it mostly correlates to the size of this asteroid. Although 2024 YR4 may not be as large as the asteroid that caused the extinction of the dinosaurs, which measured six to nine miles in length, most asteroids are typically less than 65 feet long. Many asteroids that have a probability of hitting Earth up to 100% are still rated 0 on the scale because they burn up in the Earth’s atmosphere and cause no harm to civilization. Many people often wonder how scientists determine the chances of an asteroid hitting Earth.
According to Dr. Olivier R. Hainaunt, an astronomer from the European Southern Observatory, observing the asteroid’s position against a backdrop of stars over as many nights as possible helps determine its orbit. This creates a 3D trajectory of the asteroid in space. The more frequently the asteroid is measured, the more accurate the calculated orbit becomes. Since 2024 YR4 has only been studied for a little more than three months, its measured orbit is not as accurate, and thus causes scientists’ uncertainties.
Scientists continue to work around the clock to study this asteroid, which is on NASA’s asteroid risk list. It is crucial to study the asteroid now while it is still visible from Earth’s telescopes. Once its orbit goes behind the sun, it will be impossible to view until June 2028, hence why scientists are eager to study it right now.
Potential Impact Consequences
One major consequence of the asteroid hitting Earth is the significant damage it will cause in the area it impacts. Although 2024 YR4 will not cause the same level of damage as the asteroid that hit the dinosaurs, the energy it releases is equivalent to eight to ten megatons of TNT, and the radius of its blast wave could extend several miles, according to Scott Neuman from NPR.
Comparatively, in 2013, a 65-foot asteroid entered Earth’s atmosphere above the Russian city of Chelyabinsk. According to NASA, it exploded 14 miles above the ground and resulted in 1,600 casualties, mostly due to the extensive shock wave. The asteroid released energy of about 500 kilotons of TNT, which is 30 times greater than the energy released at Hiroshima from the atomic bomb. If YR4 in 2024 were to hit Earth, it would release the energy equivalent of 8000-10000 kilotons of TNT. This energy release is 500 times greater than the energy released at Hiroshima.
However, according to the International Asteroid Warning Network, the likely impact area extends “across the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia.” This area includes a vast ocean, so if something were to hit Earth here, it is unlikely to cause major destruction. Plus, it is not expected to trigger any disastrous tsunamis, since past nuclear tests conducted in the middle of the ocean with similar energy levels have not resulted in such events. Tsunamis will only be triggered if the asteroid lands near the coastline. If the asteroid were to hit land, it could wipe out entire cities and their surrounding environment.
Conclusion
Although the potential threat of asteroids can be concerning, there are global defense systems in place to protect Earth and its civilization. Space agencies like NASA, ESA, and other international organizations continue to monitor NEOs using advanced telescopes, satellites, and radar technology. There are also asteroid deflection systems in place, such as kinetic impactors which are spaceships that crash into an asteroid to change its course. Other deflection techniques that are a part of NASA’s DART mission are gravity tractors, a spacecraft that redirects an asteroid by using its gravitational pull instead of physical contact, and even nuclear options. Thus, there is really no reason to stress about the 2032 asteroid—scientists have it under control, and Earth has plenty of defense systems ready if needed.
0
0
Average Rating