March Madness!

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It’s that time of the year again. March Madness is soon arriving, and millions of people are filling out their brackets in hopes of defying the nearly impossible odds of predicting the entire tournament correctly (odds are 1/9.2 quintillion to be exact) Breaking down the top 8 contenders and four potential Cinderellas, we’re here to provide some analysis to help you win your bracket pool with friends, or maybe even Warren Buffett’s billion dollar perfect challenge, if you’re lucky.

THE CONTENDERS

Virginia Cavaliers (East, ACC, KenPom rank: 1)

Fresh off a historic upset to 16-seed UMBC in last year’s tournament, Tony Bennett’s squad has roared back with a vengeance, going 28-2 over the regular season while sporting the nation’s best scoring defense and second-best margin of victory. Their strength on the offensive end should not be understated, as they shoot 3-balls better than any team in the Power 5 conferences. Led by sophomore star De’Andre Hunter and juniors Kyle Guy & Ty Jerome, this red-hot juggernaut seems poised to make a serious run to the championship, until you consider that, in Tony Bennett’s 10 seasons with the team, UVA has never been able to advance past the Elite Eight.

Duke Blue Devils (Midwest, ACC, KenPom rank: 3)

Led by three freshmen and projected top-ten picks in this upcoming NBA Draft (Zion Williamson, R.J. Barrett, and Cameron Reddish), this NCAA powerhouse has the talent and star power to blow past every single team in the tourney, playing with a top-7 efficiency on both ends of the floor and sporting statement wins against UVA (twice), Florida State, and Virginia Tech, even with the unanimously projected No. 1 draft pick Williamson out due to injury. However, an overall lack of tournament experience throughout the roster and the team’s historically low 3-point percentage could doom Mike Krzyzewski’s team into another early upset.

Zion Williamson (1) proving that his reputation for greatness precedes him.

Gonzaga Bulldogs (West, WCC, KenPom rank: 2)

Despite losing star forward Killian Tillie early in the season due to an ankle injury, Mark Few’s team, and the current #1 team in the AP Poll, has been shooting teams out of the arena in the regular season, posting the most efficient offense and best field goal percentage in the nation while blazing to a 30-3 record. Led by junior stars Rui Hachimura and Brandon Clarke, senior Josh Perkins and sophomore Zach Norvell Jr., Gonzaga has to hope that a returning Tillie can help spark a Bulldogs squad that has benefitted from the luck of avoiding many top tournament contenders

Josh Perkins (13) and teammate Zach Norvell Jr (23) in a game against UNC

North Carolina Tar Heels (South, ACC, KenPom rank: 5)

Finishing the season with a 7 game win streak, with wins over 3 top-25 teams in that stretch, perhaps no team is entering the national tournament hotter than the Tar Heels, the top rebounding and second-best passing team in the nation. Led by the dominant backcourt of Coby White & Cameron Johnson and the bruising frontcourt duo of Luke Maye and Nassir Little, UNC has the speed, versatility, and physicality to make a deep run in the tourney. It’s on the less glamorous side of the floor where Roy Williams’ squad really struggles, though, as their 205th-ranked scoring defense could prove fatal on a night where their shots don’t fall.

Tennessee Volunteers (East, SEC, KenPom rank: 7)

For the 2nd straight season, the Vols have established themselves as a contender. Spending 5 weeks at number 1 on the AP Poll, Tennessee culminated their season with an impressive record of 27-4, boasting wins over Kentucky and Gonzaga. SEC Player of the Year Grant Williams led the team in both scoring and rebounds, while guards Admiral Schofield and Jordan Bone have established themselves as premier players on the team. Unlike other teams listed, Tennessee is on a downwards trend, dropping 3 of their last 7 to Auburn, LSU, and Kentucky. Hoping to avenge their early exit to Loyola-Chicago in last year’s tournament, Tennessee will be an interesting team to watch in March.

Kentucky Wildcats (South, SEC, KenPom rank: 8)

One of the youngest teams in the nation (an average 0.64 years of college basketball experience for the team), the Wildcats have quietly asserted themselves as legitimate postseason threats, even without the star power of Duke or the defensive/offensive efficiency of Gonzaga and UVA. Despite the brilliant performances of freshmen Tyler Herro & Keldon Johnson, senior Reid Travis, and sophomore NPOY candidate P.J. Washington, much of Kentucky’s success should be attributed to the outstanding coaching job of John Calipari, who has maneuvered this young group of overachievers to a 27-5 record with impressive wins over Florida, UNC, Kansas, and Tennessee. However, without a true defensive or offensive calling card and the absence of a star that can take over games in the clutch, Kentucky seems to lack the blueprint of a traditional NCAA tournament winner.

Reid Travis (22) quite literally pushing his competition to the ground

LSU Tigers (West, SEC, KenPom rank: 16)

Throughout the season, arguably no team has shown more poise and grit than LSU. Opening a dismal 7-3 , with losses to Florida State, Houston, and unranked Oklahoma State, the Tigers rebounded to finish the season 26-5, culminating with a coveted number 1 seed in the SEC. Guards Tremont Waters and Skylar Mays have been the backbone of this SEC powerhouse, averaging a combined 29 points per game, while freshman forward and former New Jersey high school standout Naz Reid has proved to be an all-around threat on an already talented LSU squad, averaging 13.3 ppg and 6.9 rpg. In a shocking turn of events, head coach Will Wade was suspended indefinitely on March 8th in response to an NCAA corruption probe, leaving many to wonder how a young LSU team can adapt down the stretch.

Michigan State Spartans (Midwest, B10, KenPom rank: 4)

Death, taxes; The Spartans inevitably having another successful season. 2019 marks the 21st straight NCAA Tournament appearance for Tom Izzo and Michigan State. Finishing the regular season 25-6 and at the top of the Big 10, Michigan State has a viable case to be a number 1 seed. Junior guard Cassius Winston has cemented himself as one of the nation’s top player, recording a remarkable season which saw him average 19 ppg and 7 apg en route to winning Big 10 Player of the Year. Despite the offensive production, Michigan State’s strengths lie in its explosive defense. They rank 4th in the nation in opponent shooting percentage (37.6%) and 3rd in blocks per game (5.6). Tom Izzo’s squads have a history of collapsing in the tournament, with the embarrassing losses to Middle Tennessee (2016), UConn (2014), and Syracuse (2018) coming to mind.

Cassius Winston (5) as one of the nation’s top player

FOUR SLEEPERS

Murray State Racers (Midwest, OVC, KenPom rank: 51)

Two words: Ja Morant. Murray State’s star point guard has electrified the nation in his meteoric rise up draft boards, ranking 8th in PPG (24.6) and leading Division I in assists with 10.0 APG. A projected top-3 pick in this year’s NBA Draft, Morant has shown that he can take over games when his team needs him to, scoring 36 points (22 in the 2nd half) and hitting a game-winning and-1 floater in consecutive games to carry the Racers to a tournament berth. Despite a lackluster supporting cast, Morant and the Racers seem to be the most likely candidates to pull off a deep Cinderella run similar to Stephen Curry and Davidson in 2008.

Temetrius “Ja” Morant (12) dodging the defense from Middle Tennesse Blue Raiders

Wofford Terriers (West, SC, KenPom rank: 18)

Mike Young’s team broke onto the national scene in 2019, posting a 29-4 record en route to winning the Southern Conference Tournament in a dominant fashion. Similar to Gonzaga, Wofford’s success has been a product of its high powered offense. Spearheaded by sharpshooter Fletcher Magee, the Terriers have shot 42% from the 3 point line, good for 2nd in the country, while having the 3rd most efficient overall offense. Similar to other teams predicated on excellent 3-point shooting, Wofford can beat any team on any given night. However, when the shots aren’t falling, Wofford is in trouble, as they rank just 63rd in defensive efficiency.

Nevada Wolf Pack (Midwest, MWC, KenPom rank: 22)

Led by twin brothers Cody and Caleb Martin and double-double machine Jordan Caroline, the Wolf Pack have responded to their surprise run to the Sweet Sixteen by retooling and reloading, with almost all of last year’s team returning for another shot at a title. And boy do they look good. Eric Musselman’s team has sprinted through the regular season and have put the rest of Division I on notice with their 29-3 record, top-15 scoring offense, and ability to finish games strong (4th in second half PPG). Despite an overall lack of roster depth and minor defensive concerns, the Martin twins have shown that they are more than capable of carrying Nevada to another deep tournament run.

Twins Cody (11) and Caleb (10) Martin, the alpha males of the Wolf Pack

Saint Mary’s Gaels (South, WCC, KenPom rank: 30)

Coming off of an upset over No. 1 Gonzaga to win the WCC title, Saint Mary’s has established itself as a force to be reckoned with. Led by point guard Jordan Ford and forward Malik Fitts, Saint Mary’s has seemed to overcome a tumultuous midseason stretch which saw losses to unranked BYU, Western Kentucky, Pepperdine, and San Francisco to finish the season 8-2 over their last ten games. Don’t be misled be the mediocre 22-11 record in a relatively weak conference: Saint Mary’s is a team to watch.

We hope this helped you with your brackets! And, if it didn’t, enjoy this comic by Ryan Shanker (who also co-wrote this article).