As we approach the month of February, we draw near to the dawn of the primary election season. Over several months, each of the fifty states and the District of Columbia will hold partisan elections to determine which candidates will appear on November’s General Election ballot.
This political process is somewhat complex. Although it is generally referred to as the “primary season,” it is actually a combination of two types of elections: primaries and caucuses. Most states hold primaries; only Iowa, Nevada, Kansas, North Dakota, Wyoming, and Maine will hold caucuses this season.
What’s the Difference?
Primary elections are funded and organized by the governments of the respective states. There are separate primaries for Republican and Democratic candidates. Citizens may vote at the polling stations within their precincts, just as they would during the General Election. The winning candidate gains electors to support him/her at the party’s National Convention.
Caucuses, however, are directly funded and organized by the Republican and Democratic parties of the respective states. Active party members host gatherings within their precincts, where they discuss party platforms and vote. Delegates are selected to support the top candidates at county conventions. These conventions vote again, and choose delegates to support the top candidates at the state convention. Finally, the state convention votes, and chooses electors to support the winning candidate at the party’s National Convention.
Who Votes When?
The first elections of the primary season will begin on February 3rd. These are Iowa’s Republican and Democratic caucuses, which will continue through the county and state conventions in March and April. New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina will hold their elections later in February. Competition will reach a fever-pitch on Super Tuesday; on Tuesday, March 3rd, numerous states will vote. California has joined the group this year, breaking with its tradition of voting in June.
New Jersey will hold its Republican and Democratic primaries on Tuesday, June 2nd. This is the final day of primary elections, by which point the party nominations should be relatively clear. The National Conventions will confirm the nominations of their winning candidates over the summer.
Who’s in the Race?
Although the Democratic field still boasts a plethora of candidates, it has thinned significantly. Since early December, several high-profile candidates have suspended or discontinued their campaigns, beginning with Montana Governor Steve Bullock, followed by Senator Kamala Harris, Julián Castro, Marianne Williamson, and Senator Corey Booker.
This leaves Senator Bennet, Vice President Biden, Mayor Bloomberg, Mayor Buttigieg, Congressman Delaney, Congresswoman Gabbard, Senator Klobuchar, Governor Patrick, Senator Sanders, Thomas Steyer, Senator Warren, and Andrew Yang in the race.
On the Republican side of the aisle, President Trump is challenged by Governor Bill Weld and Congressman Joe Walsh.
Who Will Win?
As of January 23rd, polling indicates that Sanders is favored to win the New Hampshire primary, followed by Biden, Buttigieg, and Warren (seeWBUR/MassINC). Projections have fluctuated since the tiff between Sanders and Warren at the recent Democratic debate, which initially hurt both campaigns. However, polls conducted over the past several days consistently indicate that Sanders is in the lead.
All but one of the major polls conducted on January 22nd project that Biden will clinch the Democratic nomination, followed by Sanders and Warren.
Tuning in to the Primaries
Super Tuesday is a climactic point in the primary season. Multiple states will vote, and trends across the various elections typically indicate the consensus of the parties heading into the national conventions; the candidates with the most success on Super Tuesday will likely become the nominees.
Upcoming Democratic Debates: Three more Democratic debates are scheduled to air on February 7th, 9th, and 25th. These should be particularly contentious, as the primaries will be well underway. Candidates may adapt their original talking points and campaign strategies in accordance with their success in the initial elections.
Republican Primary Elections: Several states have announced their intentions to forego Republican primaries entirely. This will make it nearly impossible for President Trump’s challengers to secure the party nomination. It will be interesting to observe the success of Weld and Walsh in the states which do hold elections. If either candidate performs well, the states which forego Republican primaries may be condemned for suppressing a legitimate challenge to the incumbent.
The Big Picture
The primary season is a critical phase of the presidential election process. The funneling of candidates determines the makeup of the General Election ticket. This, in turn, determines the nation’s fate for the next four years. In addition to its implications for the future, the primary season has a profound effect on the status quo. During the primaries, a diverse array of presidential hopefuls campaign and debate, critiquing current policy and proposing solutions for the future. This peaks public interest in domestic and foreign policy, sparking a robust political dialogue across the country.
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