Background
Most of us remember when Vladamir Putin invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022. The Russian army attempted to move towards Kyiv, which failed, and Russia pulled out of the region. Since then, the war had mostly been a stalemate until Ukraine launched its offensives in the North and South, which turned the tide of the war somewhat in their favor. The last two months have been transformative in the Russo-Ukrainian war, from the offensive to the annexation of the occupied regions of Ukraine. Let’s take a look…
The Ukrainian Offensive
During the September Ukrainian offensive, Ukraine was able to liberate much of Kharkiv Oblast. In a massive social media campaign bluntly saying there would be a large-scale offensive in the South, Ukraine gave Russia two choices: move troops, or lose ground. The Russians decided to move troops to the South.
The area of contention where the Southern offensive was being held was separated by the Dnipro River. Two bridges connected the area: the Antonvsky and the Kakhovka bridge. Using Western equipment sent by the U.S. called HIMARS, which fires rockets extremely accurately, Ukraine hit the two bridges, crippling them.
Without these bridges, Russia has to rely on ferry and pontoon bridges, which take a long time to set up. Pontoon bridges are also easy targets, as they are exposed to artillery and HIMARS. Russia’s other options are ferry bridges, which can’t withstand the weight of thousands of soldiers with ammo, tanks, and fighting gear.
While the offensive may not have gone as well in the South, it could have pulled resources away from the North, where the actual attack was. After the distraction in the South, Ukraine’s mechanized divisions blitzed into the North, liberating about 100 kilometers of land in three days! They continued their momentum for some kilometers, even taking Lyman and, with it, many Russian troops. The tide of war has shifted, at least for the moment, in Ukraine’s favor.
The Annexation of Eastern Ukraine
After the Ukrainian offensive, Russia held a referendum (a general vote on a single political decision) with their occupied regions in Ukraine on whether the areas should join the Russian Federation. 98% of people in Donetsk and Luhansk agreed to join Russia, 93% in Zaporizhzhya, and 87% in Kherson. Russia subsequently annexed these regions of Ukraine. The United Nations overwhelmingly voted to condemn the annexation on October 12, 2022.
What’s Next in this Conflict?
At of the time of writing this article, October 23, 2022, the war has entered another stalemate. The front line has not moved for two weeks, and Russia is threatening the use of nuclear weapons.
NATO, in return, stated that if Russia fired a nuclear weapon, there would be dire consequences. So, unfortunately, there seems to be no end in sight for the Ukrainian conflict as of right now.
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