Ever since the tumultuous 2016 referendum in which U.K. citizens voted to leave the European Union (EU), the people of the U.K.–and the world–have wondered how the country will function after it leaves. Under Article 50 of the Treaty of Maastricht (the document that officially created the EU), any member of the Union is allowed to leave at any time. The newest Prime Minister of the U.K., Theresa May, recently took the helm and triggered Article 50, initiating Brexit. The UK began negotiating the exit and was supposed to withdraw on March 29, but that has not exactly worked out. What is going on?
Brexit Explained
First, we need to clear up a few major questions: what is Brexit? Who supports it? Is it plausible? Will it pass?
Brexit (“British Exit”) is a growing separatist movement in the UK. Citizens are pushing for the nation to leave the European Union, which it has been a member of for 25 years. The European Union, or the EU, is an economic and political alliance between 28 European countries. Citizens of the countries are allowed to move around to different member countries and 19 out of the 28 countries use its standard currency: the euro, which the UK does not use. The EU has four institutions: the European Commission, European Parliament, Council of the European Union, and Court of Justice; these institutions help maintain balance within the EU.
The UK leaving the EU would have a rocking effect on the world’s market; the market wouldn’t collapse, but it could create an unstable market. Other countries would also see this as a move against the principles of the EU, which was created to link countries together economically so that countries are less likely to fight. However, the threat of Brexit affects the the safety between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. There is talk about creating a wall between the two countries or a security system to monitor the border because of the centuries of tension between the two countries.
Theresa May’s Lackluster Plans
Prime Minister Theresa May had a Plan A and a Plan B meant to tackle the Brexit predicament, both of which were denied. Plan A tackles some of the critical issues in the forthcoming EU-UK break-up, such as how much the UK must pay the EU (most likely at least £39 billion-$50 billion) and the post-Brexit status of UK citizens and EU nationals living in the EU and UK. Furthermore, Plan A contained regulations regarding the ‘Irish Backstop’, which ensured that a hard border could not be established in Ireland for the purpose of preventing conflicts similar to that of the 1990’s.
May’s Plan B was very similar to her Plan A, which is the reason as to why they were both shot down by Parliament. The little change in May’s Plan B exhibited how she truly did not have a definitive plan for the Brexit situation. Similar to Plan A, Plan B entailed staying within the European Union until 2020. However, it was very vaguely specified what would replace Union specific customs and trading arrangements, consequently leaving the future of the United Kingdom in the hands of uncertainty.
May criticized the state of of the United Kingdom’s government, as many members of Parliament denied both of May’s plans because they did not completely adhere to their party’s political wants. Hostility between Parliament and May’s relationship has risen significantly in the past two years, and May chastised Parliament for their stubbornness and inflexibility.
What’s Going to Happen Next?
May’s deal has already been rejected twice by Parliament. The first rejection was the biggest defeat in Parliament in the UK’s modern political history, dealing an especially harsh blow to May, who could not even count on the support of her own party. In the next few days, she will present the third, and most likely final, version of her deal to Parliament. With her promise to resign if this deal passes, she is hoping to secure the key votes of certain right-wing MPs in her party. These MPs want a new leader to take over the next stage of the UK’s relationships with the EU.
Time is running out for May-and for the UK as a whole. The rest of the EU granted May an extension until May 12th to manage the UK’s exit, but only if her deal is passed this week. Otherwise, she has to return to Brussels by mid April to renegotiate with EU leaders. These developments come as the UK is embroiled in political turmoil. The fear of a no deal Brexit, where the UK would crash out of the EU, looms, and many UK citizens think there should be a second referendum on Brexit altogether. May’s own party, the Conservatives, will choose her successor from their own ranks. As Conservative leaders begin to vie for May’s post, she must work fast to secure her legacy.
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