As Paul Ryan strode to the podium to address the media on the afternoon of March 24th, sheer disappointment and shock clearly hung over Speaker’s otherwise cryptic facial expression. In a week of stunning developments, the GOP’s ultimate failure to gather support for the Obamacare-replacement bill provided an awe-inspiring headline for news around the world. Economists and analysts everywhere unanimously recognized the bill’s disintegration as a major stain on President Trump’s relatively new record. Paul Ryan, the main author of the bill, received the tail-end of bipartisan backlash like none other. His record-low approval rating and dramatic demonstration of incompetency, have begged a reasonable question. Is Paul Ryan’s political career nearing an end?
The Rise of a Politician
To understand Paul Ryan’s current situation, one must examine his long, unusual journey to becoming the 54th Speaker of the House. Unlike most high-profile politicians, Ryan chose to ditch the prototypical big-school, law major background. Upon graduating high school, Ryan attended the relatively obscure Miami University of Ohio — a school not particularly famed for producing government members; with the lone exception of Benjamin Harrison. During his years, Ryan began to familiarize himself with the libertarianist writings and philosophies of Ayn Rand. On numerous occasions, he has accredited Rand to renewing his interest in political activism. Ryan graduated with a bachelor’s degree in both economics and political science. After graduating in 1992, Ryan was granted permission to intern for Wisconsin Senator Bob Kastens. He soon moved up ranks to becoming one of Kastens’ top legislative aides. Following Kastens’ loss in Congress, Ryan became a speechwriter for the conservative advocacy group Empower America. He worked in this profession up until 1997, when he decided to go back home and become a marketing consultant for his family owned construction company, Ryan Incorporated Central. In 1998, Ryan ran a congressional bid for Wisconsin’s 1st district. Running as a Republican, he defeated Democrat Lydia Spottswood, thus winning him the seat. Since, Ryan has defended his seat for 8 consecutive terms, and has earned tremendous respect from fellow lawmakers along the way. In 2012, Ryan got his major breakthrough by landing on the ticket of presidential candidate Mitt Romney. He served as a mediator between establishment Romney Republicans and the newly formed Tea Party movement. Following Romney’s failed campaign, Ryan stardom drastically increased as he became a prominent voice on congressional floor. 2015 was the year that Paul Ryan officially became a household name. Then Speaker of House John Boehner succumbed to extreme opposition from within his own party, and resigned from his post. A coalition of influential Republicans sponsored Paul Ryan to fill the void, and effective October 9th, 2015, he became the 54th Speaker of the House.
The Opposition
Prior to the demolition of the American Health Care Act on the House floor, Ryan was seen as beacon of consistency. He had always stood for conservative principles, while rejecting far-right and left-wing policies. Ryan was one of the main members in Congress heavily backed by the Koch brothers, as reflected by his tendency to propose corporate friendly legislation often. On Saturday, the day following the failed bill, President Trump sent a cryptic tweet to his 24 million followers which urged them to “watch Judge Jeanine” on Fox News that night. In her show’s introduction, Judge Jeanine verbally attacked Paul Ryan’s weakness and incompetency, saying that he should resign immediately. Trump’s proclaimed innocence in the grand scheme of his tweet was given, but it should raise some eyebrows regarding a potential rift between him and Speaker Ryan. As mentioned above, the Freedom Caucus of House Republicans were among the main opposition to the bill. They are well known for orchestrating the Tea Party movement, which deposed of John Boehner and allowed for Ryan’s ascent. A possible feud between Ryan and the Caucus could also signal a clear demise for the current Speaker. Another surprise of the past week, was the massive sums of money that went to anti-bill efforts. The New York Times first reported that the Koch conservative advocacy group, usually pro-Ryan, were funding efforts to squash the bill. They cited that it was poorly drafted and did not walk back on enough provisions of Obamacare. In the middle of a fiery GOP civil war, it is very difficult to predict Paul Ryan’s future in the party. An upcoming landmark tax revision plan may prove to be the deal breaker. Analysts and lawmakers everywhere will be evaluating Paul Ryan’s ability to compromise this piece of legislation.
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